Technomic: about the Future of Fast Casual until 2020

Chicago / IL. (tni) Fast-casual growth continues to outpace that of quick service and full service. Though it´s still a small segment—comprising six percent of the restaurant industry—its influence is great. With origins in once-innovative concepts such as Fuddruckers and Koo Koo Roo and the «home meal replacement» trend; and prime development seen in chains like Chipotle Mexican Grill, Panera Bread and Five Guys Burgers and Fries; the fast-casual sector has evolved and expanded. The old terminology «adult fast food» is no longer an adequate definition.

«Watching the success of fast-casual concepts, quick-service restaurants have adapted by improving menu items and adding fresh positioning. Leading QSRs like McDonald´s and Wendy´s are upgrading to fast-casual like decor and Chick-fil-A is testing table delivery», says Technomic EVP Darren Tristano, who has been studying the fast-casual phenomenon since its identification in the early nineties.

«Full-service restaurants have integrated elements of fast-casual too, such as Pizza Inn´s recent launch of the Pie Five Pizza Co. concept and Denny´s Fresh Express», says Tristano. «But innovative fast-casual concepts continue to evolve, adding full-service elements like table service in the evening and quick-service convenience like drive-throus and delivery, defying the typical ‘fast-casual’ definition».

As a follow-up to its Foodservice Planning Program study of the fast-casual segment, presented to suppliers in January 2012, Technomic is launching a new Fast Casual Insights Group which will provide ongoing monitoring and growth forecasts. Key components include:

• Qualitative and quantitative operator research to determine how they define «fast-casual», the critical strategic issues and competitive threats facing operators, and technology´s role in the segment.
• Analysis of Technomic´s Consumer Brand Metrics data, outlining the attributes that drive satisfaction at fast-casual concepts and how individual brands rate on these attributes.
• Historic perspectives including sales and unit growth, segment share and analysis of why some concepts have earned ongoing success while others have struggled or ceased operation.
• A predictive view of the future, including growth forecasts through 2020, the concepts and niches that will see long-term success and why.
• The Fast-Casual 400 – the most thorough ranking of fast-casual concepts, available exclusively with this report.